The debate - Part II

I predict a Cameron defeat. He should not lose. Europe should be good for him, so should Afghanistan. Obama's dumping of the Special Relationship provides opportunities to attack Labour for slavishness in that direction.

But he will fail. He will fail because he will try to spin his way out of the 'Cast-iron' pledge nonsense. He needs to put his hands up, and do so pre-emptively. He can do this in his opening statement:

I would like to use my opening statement to talk about the lack of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. I promised that there would be a referendum even if the Treaty became law, but that was a promise too far, made in anger that the British people faced being cheated out of their say. The thing about European law, and the big reservation about European integration, is that once a Treaty comes into force, our only choices are to accept it, leave or try to renegotiate. We prefer renegotiation, and we cannot unilaterally renegotiate. We will use any attempt to deepen integration - and the Euro's problems may bring this forward - as an opportunity to renegotiate.

But it was Labour and the LibDems who cheated the British people of their say. They talk of Britain's influence in Europe, but that is meaningless if the British people are left angry on the side lines. They reneged on their manifesto pledges on the spurious grounds that the European Constitution had been renamed as the Lisbon Treaty. It is a little like refusing to hold a referendum on joining the single currency because it was going to be renamed.

And the LibDems will say that they will off a say on "in and out'. But that is not the 'true' choice. It is a subtle attempt at blackmail. There are two choices: say you are happy, or leave. We would boycott such a referendum as a false and dishonest choice. A choice that no country has ever been given. But one that the LibDems, in their sort of new politics, would use to get their way.

Sadly, he will try to spin. And his cast-iron pledge, added to the LibDem's manipulative offer of a false choice, will allow Clegg to put spokes in his wheels.